Aug 22, 2026 · Prediction markets · Desk briefing · All news
Resolution disputes are rare — and still the whole product
Most markets resolve on the named source without drama. The ones that do not were usually badly worded on day one. Read that source before the mid.
What “resolved” actually means
A prediction-market trade is a claim on a written question, not on the vibe of a news cycle. Kalshi and other DCMs settle against the exchange’s official rules and the data source named in the contract. Crypto boards that use an oracle (Polymarket’s UMA path is the usual example) settle against the market’s resolution criteria plus that oracle process. Manifold can resolve by creator rules or a moderation path. Those are three different products. Treat them that way.
We do not relitigate individual historic disputes here. The useful habit is the same every time: open the market, find the resolution source, and ask whether the headline you just read is that source. If it is not, you do not have a view. You have a comment.
Where disputes cluster
- Ambiguous wording. “Wins the nomination” vs “is the nominee on the ballot” vs “is certified.” Those can be three dates.
- A source that can be edited. A wiki, a social post, or a blog that later updates.
- Edge cases the title hid. Postponements, vacated results, “by the listed date” vs “at the event whenever it happens.”
If the contract does not name a source, treat it as a forum thread with a chart. Do not size it like a regulated event contract. That is the whole briefing.
How to check a market in two minutes
- Read the title, end date and resolution source before the price.
- Ask what happens if the event is delayed, vacated or renamed.
- If you cannot answer that from the rules page, do not trade the mid.
- Then compare venues on Compare or the Polymarket / Kalshi reviews — access and KYC are a separate check.
Mechanics sit on how prediction markets work. Rankings stay on top prediction markets. This page is only the resolution habit.
Editorial analysis only. GammaPredict is not a resolution source and cannot reopen a market. Read the venue rules.