Range contracts
Whether a print lands inside a band. Rounding at the edge of the band is the most common dispute.
Economy · Live markets
Macro markets, oil, rates and earnings.
Stocks, FX, OPEC+, central banks and AI earnings. Use this board to follow sourced stories, compare platform fit and check resolution quality before opening any market.
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Live economy markets
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Active economy markets with volume, prices and related platforms. Auto-refreshes every 5 minutes.
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Settlement
How Economy markets resolve.
Read the resolution source before the price — it decides more outcomes than direction does.
Macro is the cleanest category on this site. Contracts settle from scheduled government statistics published at a known minute by a known agency, which removes almost all of the wording ambiguity that plagues AI or culture markets.
The remaining edge is procedural. Whether a contract reads the first print or a later revision, headline or core, and how it rounds at the boundary decides more outcomes than a macro view does.
| Settlement source | What to check |
|---|---|
| Statistical agenciesInflation, employment and growth prints | Published on a pre-announced date and minute; the first print usually governs |
| Central bank statementsPolicy rate decisions | The published decision settles it, not the press-conference tone |
| Treasury and fiscal dataIssuance, deficit and debt milestones | Regular auction and reporting cadence |
| National statistics officesNon-US macro contracts | Local calendars and revision policies differ from US practice |
Contract types
What trades on this board.
The same headline event can be listed as several different contracts. These are the shapes you will meet in economy.
Policy-decision contracts
Whether a central bank holds, cuts or hikes at a scheduled meeting.
Threshold contracts
Whether a series crosses a level by a deadline, such as an unemployment or inflation line.
Recession and regime contracts
Longer-horizon questions that depend on an official definition or a named committee call.
Calendar and liquidity
- Inflation and employment releases follow a published monthly schedule.
- Central bank meetings are scheduled a year ahead — the densest volume days in the category.
- Growth data arrives in successive estimates, so revisions matter for later contracts.
- Fiscal deadlines and auctions add predictable secondary catalysts.
Where economy contracts go wrong
- First print versus revision is the single biggest settlement trap; the rules decide, not the eventual truth.
- Headline and core series move differently — confirm which one the contract reads.
- Rounding conventions decide boundary cases; a print can be economically inside your view and settle against you.
- Statistical releases can be delayed by government funding gaps, extending contract horizons.
Venue fit
Where economy contracts actually list.
Coverage differs sharply by category. These are the venues worth comparing first here — always verify eligibility yourself.
KalshiThe strongest macro board for eligible US users: regulated, fiat-funded and built around the release calendar.
ForecastExExchange-style economy and climate contracts worth comparing on listing detail and limits.
PolymarketBroad macro coverage for users outside restricted regions, priced alongside political catalysts.Editorial comparison only, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose money, regional eligibility changes, and settlement rules are set by each venue. Read our rating method and fees and risk guide before funding an account.
FAQ
Economy settlement questions.
Do macro markets settle on the first print or the revision?
Most settle on the initial release, which means a contract can resolve one way and later revisions can point the other. The rules text is authoritative — check it before treating a revision as relevant.
Is a rate decision settled by the statement or the press conference?
The published decision settles it. Commentary and guidance move prices on adjacent contracts but do not change the recorded outcome.
Why is economy a good first category?
Because the source, the publication time and the settlement rule are all known in advance. That lets you learn spreads, fees and exit mechanics without also fighting ambiguous wording.
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