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GammaPredict · Blog and news

Blog and news, on separate tabs.

Own HTML first — Kalshi gold/silver perps, the sports map, DefiLlama vs rank — then a labelled RSS board. Rankings stay on Top Prediction Markets.

Last expanded 29 Oct 2026 · Desk first, RSS second

What the News section is

Editorial HTML first, labelled RSS second. The photo cards below are our own briefings. The lead is the 29 October halt on Polymarket’s international site after the company said a third-party provider was compromised. The 10 October welcome-bonus check, the Sixth Circuit sports holding, gold and silver perps, the earlier circuit map, and DefiLlama vs rank stay on the board. Older fees, access, CFTC and UFC notes stay in the archive. A crawler sees them without JavaScript.

Live RSS is publisher copy. We do not pretend a Kalshi or Polymarket feed item is a GammaPredict investigation. Related research, not news: how to start, fees and risk, Top Prediction Markets.

GammaPredict desk

Latest own briefings in HTML, with unique photos. Archive under the cards lists every desk URL. Live RSS is labelled and secondary.

Security Prediction marketsOct 29, 2026 Polymarket paused international trading after a third-party compromise The company says affected traders will be reimbursed and that the US platform was not the one halted. About $2.65 million is an Arkham snapshot cited by other desks, not a Polymarket total. Bonuses Prediction marketsOct 10, 2026 Welcome bonuses are not one deposit match Polymarket US: $10 in, $25 trading credit each side. International Polymarket pays fees. Kalshi varies. Smarkets is 0% for 60 days. Regulation RegulationSep 27, 2026 Sixth Circuit: Kalshi sports contracts are not swaps Ohio and Tennessee, 25 Sep 2026. Sports event contracts are not swaps. Metal perps and the CME suit are different dockets. Metals EconomySep 10, 2026 Kalshi gold and silver perps are a 40.2 filing, not a CFTC vote GOLDPERP and SILVERPERP were self-certified under CFTC Reg. 40.2. Cash-settled, no expiry, Pyth oracle. That is not a Commission yes. Regulation RegulationSep 9, 2026 Kalshi sports is a map now Third Circuit said swaps. Ninth Circuit said sports betting. New Jersey asked SCOTUS. Sports access is not one national product. TVL Prediction marketsSep 9, 2026 DefiLlama TVL is not our ranking Polymarket International $361.1M. Kalshi has no pool TVL. A Llama screenshot is not a Gamma Score. Watchlist PlatformsSep 9, 2026 Predict Fun is watchlist, not a Kalshi alternative $11.3M on BNB is a catalog hole we closed. It is not a US cash DCM and it is not on the alternatives list. Fees Prediction marketsAug 23, 2026 Fees and spread still eat a screenshot mid A 3-cent advertised edge can vanish after taker fees, FX and the book you actually walk. Mid is not execution. Access Prediction marketsAug 21, 2026 Access and KYC still split one story into two venues A US reader and an EU reader can share a headline and still be looking at two legal products.

Desk archive

Desk URLs in prose so the section has a readable index — not only a grid over an RSS hole. UFC, CFTC and resolution briefings stay listed below the new four.

  1. Polymarket paused international trading after a third-party compromise — 29 Oct 2026. International site halted. Company says a third-party provider was compromised and that affected traders will be reimbursed. US platform was not the one halted.
  2. Welcome bonuses on prediction markets are not one deposit match — 10 Oct 2026. Polymarket US Campaign A is $10 for a $25 trading credit each side. International Polymarket is a fee share. Cards: welcome bonuses.
  3. Sixth Circuit: Kalshi sports contracts are not swaps — 27 Sep 2026. Ohio and Tennessee. Sports event contracts are not swaps. Does not reclassify GOLDPERP / SILVERPERP or close the CME perp suit.
  4. Kalshi gold and silver perps are a 40.2 filing, not a CFTC vote — 10 Sep 2026. GOLDPERP / SILVERPERP self-certified under Reg. 40.2. Cash-settled, no expiry, Pyth. Not a Commission yes. CME is still litigating whether Kalshi perps are futures vs swaps.
  5. Kalshi sports is a map now — 9 Sep 2026. Third Circuit vs Ninth Circuit; NJ at SCOTUS. Sports access is state-shaped. Cash DCMs still exist.
  6. DefiLlama TVL is not our ranking — 9 Sep 2026. Polymarket International $361.1M (84.5%). Kalshi TVL is null. Gamma Score did not move.
  7. Predict Fun is watchlist, not a Kalshi alternative — 9 Sep 2026. Catalog hole closed. Not a DCM. Not on the alternatives list.
  8. Fees and spread still eat a screenshot mid — 23 Aug 2026. A 50¢ mid with a 52/48 book is an 8% round-trip before any taker fee. Official schedules: Polymarket, Kalshi, Smarkets. Longer method: fees comparison.
  9. Access and KYC still split one story into two venues — 21 Aug 2026. A US reader and an EU reader can share a headline and still be looking at two legal products. No VPN notes. Country pages: USA, UK, EU.
  10. CFTC headlines are a venue-risk market first — 23 Aug 2026. Rulemakings and product lists move Kalshi and ForecastEx access more than they move election boards. Log: regulation tracker.
  11. Resolution disputes are rare — and still the whole product — 22 Aug 2026. Read the named source before the mid. A market without a source is a forum thread with a chart.
  12. Makhachev vs Machado Garry, UFC 330 — 15 Aug 2026. Polymarket near ~76% on the champion. Editorial pick, not a bet slip. Sports venues: sports markets.

Desk notes