Passage contracts
Whether a measure clears a named stage by a date.
Politics · Live markets
Elections, courts and policy event markets.
Campaign finance, UK politics, US oversight and governance risks. Use this board to follow sourced stories, compare platform fit and check resolution quality before opening any market.
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Settlement
How Politics markets resolve.
Read the resolution source before the price — it decides more outcomes than direction does.
Policy markets are where wording does the most damage. “Will this become law” has at least four defensible settlement points — chamber passage, both chambers, signature, entry into force — and a contract that names the wrong one for your thesis will resolve against you while you are directionally right.
Most legislation also dies procedurally rather than by defeat. Bills expire in committee or run out of session time, which means No is often the structural favourite regardless of stated support.
| Settlement source | What to check |
|---|---|
| Legislative recordsBill passage and votes | Official records only; the recorded stage decides settlement |
| Government gazettesEntry into force and appointments | The definitive source for implementation contracts |
| Court docketsRulings, indictments and challenges | Public filings settle; expected timing frequently slips |
| Official statementsResignations, cabinet changes and policy action | Institutional confirmation rather than reporting |
Contract types
What trades on this board.
The same headline event can be listed as several different contracts. These are the shapes you will meet in politics.
Appointment contracts
Whether a nominee is confirmed or a post is filled.
Tenure contracts
Whether an officeholder remains in place through a window.
Legal-outcome contracts
Whether a court reaches a stated decision in a window.
Calendar and liquidity
- Legislative sessions and recesses set what is even possible in a window.
- Budget and funding deadlines force the year's most concentrated policy trading.
- Court terms determine when rulings can plausibly land.
- Post-election transitions cluster appointment contracts.
Where politics contracts go wrong
- Procedural death, not defeat, resolves most legislative contracts — timing beats popularity.
- “Passed” versus “signed” versus “in force” are different events; the rules pick one.
- Court timing is genuinely unpredictable and can outlast a contract window.
- Partial or watered-down measures create ambiguity on threshold-style policy wording.
Venue fit
Where politics contracts actually list.
Coverage differs sharply by category. These are the venues worth comparing first here — always verify eligibility yourself.
PolymarketThe widest policy and geopolitics coverage, including non-US questions.
KalshiRegulated US venue for eligible users, with clearer rulebook language.
MetaculusWritten reasoning on long-horizon governance questions; research rather than cash.Editorial comparison only, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose money, regional eligibility changes, and settlement rules are set by each venue. Read our rating method and fees and risk guide before funding an account.
FAQ
Politics settlement questions.
Does “passed” mean signed into law?
Not necessarily, and this is the category's most expensive assumption. A contract may settle on a single chamber vote, on full passage or on entry into force — only the rules text tells you which.
Why do policy markets favour No so often?
Because most proposals never reach a vote. Committee expiry and session calendars kill legislation without anyone opposing it on the record, so the structural base rate is low.
Can a court ruling settle after the market closes?
Yes, and it is common. Judicial timing does not respect contract windows, so a correct legal view can still resolve No on a dated market.
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