Overview

Forecasting questions and tournament hub. GammaPredict lists this platform for research and comparison. Check local availability, platform terms, fees and settlement rules before using real funds.

Public interface

Metaculus screenshots

Open official site ↗
Metaculus documentation — Making Predictions
Public docs. The product homepage was security-gated for this desk.
Screenshot 2 not published.This desk could not capture three distinct public pages (timeout, geo wall, dead domain, or SPA 404). We do not fabricate an interface or publish 404 / Cloudflare / parking pages.

Metaculus’s product homepage stayed behind a security gate for this desk. We publish the public documentation and any questions / tournaments pages that loaded — not a invented lobby.

Metaculus review

Metaculus is a forecasting platform: questions, community predictions, scoring, tournaments. GammaPredict keeps it as a flagship because “prediction market” searchers often want calibrated forecasts, not only Yes/No shares.

It is not Kalshi. It is not Polymarket. Play-money adjacent, research-first. We do not describe a hidden USD cashier that is not the product.

Pros

  • Serious forecasting questions and tournament structure
  • Track record and peer comparison, not a sports slip
  • Account signup without a crypto wallet

Cons

  • This is not a cash event-contract exchange
  • UI is research-heavy, not a retail trading ticket
  • Not a CFTC DCM or UKGC book
  • Do not treat community probabilities as fills you can size in dollars here

Interface

Metaculus public documentation interface
Metaculus public prediction documentation; the product homepage was security-protected during capture.

We still only publish the public documentation capture. The product homepage stayed behind a security gate for this desk. We do not invent a second UI.

Question pages lead with the title, resolution criteria, community distribution, comments and your forecast control. Tournaments and notebooks sit in the nav. It feels like a research site that learned probabilities, not like an exchange blotter.

Markets

AI, science, geopolitics, economy — questions written to be resolvable. Quality control is the point. Opportunity is skill-building and tournament standing, not capturing a 3¢ spread.

Access, KYC and region

Create an account. Email is the usual path. This is not bank KYC for a cash book. Read live terms if paid contests appear — do not assume the free account is a brokerage.

  1. Open metaculus.com and register.
  2. Read a question’s resolution criteria before you forecast.
  3. Submit a small set of forecasts to learn the scoring UI.

How to place a trade

You submit a forecast (often a probability or a distribution), not a USDC buy of Yes.

  1. Pick a question with a clear resolve date and source.
  2. Write or adjust your probability.
  3. Update as evidence arrives.
  4. Check your score, not a cash PnL.

Fees, rails and funding

Core use is free. Any prize tournament has its own rules on the official page. There is no on-chain deposit screen in the Kalshi/Polymarket sense.

ItemRoleWatch
AccountFree forecastingEmail signup
Cash contractsNot the productUse Kalshi / Polymarket if allowed
TournamentsOptionalRead prize terms live
  1. You typically do not fund a trading wallet here.
  2. If a paid product appears, use only the official cashier and terms.

Risks and limits

Category error (treating Metaculus as an exchange), over-trusting a crowd median, and skipping resolution text. This page is not financial advice.

Verdict

Use Metaculus to practise forecasting. Use Good Judgment Open for tournament culture. Use Manifold if you want a play-money ticket UI. Use Kalshi or Polymarket when you actually need cash contracts and are allowed to use them.

Strengths

  • Useful event and category discovery
  • Clear comparison fields for custody, access, and market structure
  • Good candidate for deeper editorial review

Risks and checks

  • Availability and rules can change by region
  • Liquidity and settlement quality vary by market
  • Users should verify platform terms before using real funds
Gamma Score77/100 · B

Weighted from liquidity, market variety, region access, KYC friction, fees, UX and transparency.

Liquidity 25%78
Market variety 20%86
Region access 15%86
KYC friction 15%68
Fees 10%72
UX 10%88
Transparency 5%76
Next step

Choose the next action for Metaculus.

Visit the official site after checking eligibility, or compare alternatives on GammaPredict.

Visit platform Compare alternatives →

Rating breakdown

Liquidity / depth7.4
Access clarity7.2
Market coverage7.7
Trust and settlement7.4

Best fit

Use it for
  • Politics, policy and election markets
  • Forecasting communities and research questions
Be careful if
  • Your region, payment method or tax situation is unclear

Verification checklist

  • Confirm regional eligibility and platform terms before depositing funds.
  • Read market wording, expiry time zone and resolution source before trading.
  • Check liquidity, fees, withdrawal path and settlement history for the specific event.

Best alternatives

Good Judgment OpenForecasting tournament community7.1FlagshipManifoldPlay-money forecasting community8.1FlagshipFutuurCrowd forecasting and prediction community6.9Flagship

Editorial note

This review is research, not a personalised recommendation and not financial advice. GammaPredict cannot recover funds lost on a third-party venue. See who we are, how scores are built and how to contact us.