Oct 10, 2026 · Prediction markets · Desk briefing · Written by GammaPredict Research · All news

Welcome bonuses on prediction markets are not one deposit match

A referral code on Polymarket US is a deposit credit. The same word on international Polymarket is a cut of trading fees. Kalshi will not print one number that covers every offer. Smarkets publishes a commission holiday, not cash on top of a deposit.

Polymarket US: $10 in, $25 credit each side

Polymarket US and the international Polymarket book are different products. On Polymarket US the referral code is your username. A new user enters it at signup — the invite link usually applies it — and deposits at least $10. Campaign A on the user incentive page then pays a $25 incentive credit to the friend and a $25 credit to you. The cap is 50 referrals. One bonus per verified identity. Credits post within seven days of the steps being met, and Polymarket can review them first.

That credit is a promotional trading credit. The same page says it can open positions and pay fees, and it cannot be withdrawn as cash. Your own collateral is used before the credit. Anything in the account above the credit is normal collateral and can be withdrawn. The FAQ still says a credit “may be withdrawn upon position settlement or liquidation.” Read that next to the program page: settlement can release winnings; it does not turn the credit itself into cash you pull out on day one.

QCX LLC, which operates Polymarket US, told the CFTC on 26 August 2026 that it was changing this program from withdrawable credits to expiring promotional trading credits, raising the referral cap from 14 to 50. That notice is effective 10 September 2026 and the amended program runs to 10 March 2027 unless they end it sooner. The public appendix redacts the dollar amounts. The live campaign table, not the redacted appendix, is where the $10 and $25 sit.

There is a second deposit table on the same docs page. Deposit Incentive Campaign A is also “deposit at least $10, receive $25,” once, and only for the campaign the user was shown before the deposit. The CFTC appendix says a referred participant is not in that Deposit Incentive Program, so the two $25 lines are not a stack. A further Deposit and Trading program lists larger pairs — $25 in for a $5 credit, up to $500 in for $250 — capped at $1,000 per campaign and $2,000 across that program, and eligibility depends on prior deposit and trading activity. That is not the new-user referral.

International Polymarket pays the referrer, not the deposit

The international referral program, terms effective 28 May 2026, does not add money to a deposit. A referrer needs $10,000 in lifetime volume before rewards start. Direct referrals pay 10% of net trading fees. Indirect referrals pay 5%. Payout is daily in pUSD. Rewards on one referral stop at 30 days after signup or when that user reaches Platinum, whichever comes first. The new user has to sign up within 30 days of the click. Markets without fees, including geopolitical markets, pay nothing. The help-centre note dated 24 June 2026 matches those rates.

Kalshi: the number is on the offer, not in a tweet

Kalshi’s referral FAQ, updated the day before this briefing, says amounts vary by offer and can differ between the person inviting and the person joining. An “up to” figure is a maximum, not a guaranteed bonus. Referral offers are for eligible U.S. users. A code can be added within 72 hours of account creation if none is attached yet; depositing does not close that window, and the 72 hours is not the deadline to use a credit once it is issued. Some credits are trading credits with withdrawal limits until you trade them on the product named in the offer. Applying a code does not by itself pay the bonus.

We are not printing affiliate codes that circulate as “up to $2,000.” Kalshi tells you to open Your rewards and read the terms linked to the offer on the account. A PDF for a different bonus does not govern yours.

Smarkets publishes a commission holiday

Smarkets’ own promotions page still carries code COMMFREE. New customers in the UK, Ireland and Malta enter it at registration, then make one first deposit of at least £10 or €10 by debit card or Instant Banking. Commission is 0% on bets that settle within 60 days of that deposit. Bets that settle later pay the standard rate. Skip the code and the account goes to 2% on an eligible first deposit. Skrill, Neteller, PayPal and virtual or prepaid cards, including a virtual Monzo card, do not qualify. Sweden is excluded. One offer per person and household. API or trading-software access is ineligible. The help centre says opting into Pro, or having Select applied, forfeits a 0% promotion. The offer has been on the page since 1 September 2023. It is a fee waiver, not cash added to the deposit.

What is not a welcome bonus

• Manifold gives a play-money balance. That is not cash.
• Metaculus is forecasting points. There is no deposit.
• PredictIt does not publish a welcome bonus in this index. Position caps still apply.
• ForecastEx, Predict Fun and Azuro had no welcome deposit we could verify on a first-party page on 10 October 2026. Azuro is a protocol. A free bet, if one exists, is on the app you open.

How to read a bonus card

The short version lives on the welcome bonuses cards. GammaPredict does not pay any of these credits, does not issue codes, and does not take bets. A campaign can be paused. If the live screen and the docs page disagree, the screen you are about to fund is the one that matters.

Editorial analysis only. Not financial, legal or trading advice. Offers change. GammaPredict does not pay bonuses.