Temperature contracts
Whether a station records above or below a threshold on a stated day.
Weather · Live markets
Heat, wildfires and hurricane event markets.
Extreme weather events with official source requirements. Use this board to follow sourced stories, compare platform fit and check resolution quality before opening any market.
Related boards: Esports · Weather · World Cup · Industry events · Event betting · Finder · Fees and risk
Live weather markets
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Active weather markets with volume, prices and related platforms. Auto-refreshes every 5 minutes.
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Settlement
How Weather markets resolve.
Read the resolution source before the price — it decides more outcomes than direction does.
Weather contracts are the most precisely specified markets on this site. They name a measuring station, a dataset and a measurement day, and they settle from an official record rather than from anyone's judgement about the weather.
That precision is the whole game. A city can obviously feel hotter than the threshold while the designated station records something else, and the station is what settles.
| Settlement source | What to check |
|---|---|
| National weather servicesTemperature, precipitation and storm records | Preliminary data is revised before it is certified |
| Named observation stationsThreshold contracts | One specific station settles, not a city-wide impression |
| Official storm classificationHurricane and named-storm contracts | Formation, category and landfall are official determinations |
| Climate datasetsMonthly and seasonal records | Published on a fixed lag after month end |
Contract types
What trades on this board.
The same headline event can be listed as several different contracts. These are the shapes you will meet in weather.
Precipitation contracts
Rain or snow accumulation over a defined window.
Storm contracts
Named-storm counts, categories and landfall outcomes.
Climate-record contracts
Monthly or seasonal averages and record-setting outcomes.
Calendar and liquidity
- Atlantic hurricane season runs early summer to late autumn.
- Summer heat and winter storm windows drive temperature contracts.
- Monthly climate data publishes on a predictable lag.
- Seasonal outlooks reprice long-dated contracts before any weather occurs.
Where weather contracts go wrong
- The named station settles the contract, not the regional forecast or your local reading.
- Preliminary observations get revised; the rules decide which version counts.
- Measurement-day boundaries and timezone definitions decide edge cases.
- Instrument outages and missing data trigger fallback provisions worth reading in advance.
Venue fit
Where weather contracts actually list.
Coverage differs sharply by category. These are the venues worth comparing first here — always verify eligibility yourself.
KalshiThe most developed weather board: precise station-based contracts inside a regulated venue.
ForecastExClimate and weather contracts to compare on specification and limits.
MetaculusLonger-horizon climate forecasting with reasoning rather than cash settlement.Editorial comparison only, not financial advice. Prediction markets can lose money, regional eligibility changes, and settlement rules are set by each venue. Read our rating method and fees and risk guide before funding an account.
FAQ
Weather settlement questions.
Which station settles a temperature market?
The single station named in the contract. Nearby readings, airport comparisons and regional forecasts are irrelevant to settlement even when they are more representative of the weather people experienced.
Do preliminary readings count?
Only if the rules say so. Observations are commonly revised before certification, and marginal contracts can flip between the two versions.
Why is weather considered a clean category?
Because the source, station, window and threshold are all specified before trading. The uncertainty is genuinely about the weather rather than about interpretation.
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