Liquidity is more than a headline volume number
Volume can show attention, but it does not guarantee that your order will fill at the displayed probability. For prediction markets, practical liquidity means you can enter and exit the specific outcome, at the size you intend, without moving the price too far.
What DefiLlama TVL is good for
On 9 September 2026, DefiLlama’s prediction-market category showed $421.0M of reported TVL across 121 listed protocols. Polymarket International held $356.5M — 84.7% of that total. The next nine names were about 13.5%. Rain was $28.5M (rank 2, −6.9% on the week) — now a watchlist row. Predict Fun was $10.9M (rank 3). Azuro was $1.19M (rank 10, −15.6% on the week). SX Bet was $0.64M. Kalshi is listed with no TVL because it is not an on-chain pool.
Use that table to see where crypto capital sits. Do not use it as a fill guarantee. Category TVL does not price the spread on your event. See the dated snapshot on the top prediction markets page and the live DefiLlama category.
Five signals to check on the market page
- Bid–ask spread: a narrow gap is usually a better execution signal than a large weekly volume headline.
- Visible depth: look at how much size sits near the price, not only the best quote.
- Recent fills: active trades are a stronger signal than a dormant book with one optimistic order.
- Time to resolution: a market can become thin as uncertainty resolves or after a catalyst passes.
- Settlement design: liquidity does not solve an ambiguous resolution source.
Why a 50% price may not be tradable at 50%
If the best Yes offer is 52¢ and the best sell price is 47¢, the midpoint may look like 50%, but a market order pays the available side. A large order can walk through several levels. That difference is an execution cost even when the platform displays no separate fee.
Compare liquidity by use case
Research broad boards such as Polymarket where allowed, but inspect each market rather than assuming platform-wide depth.
FAQ
Is high volume the same as liquidity?
No. Volume can show attention. Practical liquidity is whether you can enter and exit your size without moving the price too far.
What should I check on the market page?
Bid–ask spread, displayed depth, recent prints, time to resolution and whether you can exit early.
Does a high Gamma Score mean a liquid market?
Scores compare venues, not a single contract. Always check the live book for the event you care about.
Kalshi and ForecastEx should be compared contract by contract, including the displayed fee and account eligibility.
Manifold and Metaculus can be useful for forecasts, but community activity is not interchangeable with cash-market depth.
A repeatable small-order test
Before increasing size, open the exact contract, read the resolution criteria, note the bid/ask and visible depth, then use the smallest order you can responsibly make. Save the fill and compare it with the displayed midpoint. If you cannot explain the difference, do not scale.
Liquidity, fees and access belong together
A tight book does not override regional restrictions or custody risk. Pair this guide with the prediction market fees comparison and the top prediction markets ranking before using any outbound link.